\u0130ran, \u0130smail Haniye suikast\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinden yakla\u015f\u0131k bir ay ge\u00e7mesine ra\u011fmen \u0130srail’e yan\u0131t vermedi.<\/p>\n
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ABD\u2019nin eski Ulusal G\u00fcvenlik Dan\u0131\u015fman\u0131 John Bolton, Independent Arabia i\u00e7in yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131 makalede Tahran ile Tel Aviv aras\u0131ndaki gerilimin t\u0131rmanma olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 ve \u0130ran Dini Lideri\u2019nin neden hayat\u0131 i\u00e7in korkmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini yazd\u0131. Bolton\u2019un Independent Arabia i\u00e7in yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131 makale \u015f\u00f6yle:<\/p>\n
Ayetullah Hamaney g\u00fcvenlik korumas\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmal\u0131 \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc Hamas lideri \u0130smail Haniye\u2019yi g\u00fcvenli olmas\u0131 gereken \u0130ran ba\u015fkentinde g\u00fcvenli olmas\u0131 gereken bir yerleykede \u00f6ld\u00fcren, Hamaney’e, \u0130ran vatanda\u015flar\u0131na, ter\u00f6rist vekillerine ve t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyaya \u015fu a\u00e7\u0131k mesaj\u0131 verdi; \u0130ran’da kimse g\u00fcvende de\u011fil. Ne Dini Lider, ne Kas\u0131m S\u00fcleymani, ne de Besic g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin en alt d\u00fczey sava\u015f\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 g\u00fcvende de\u011fil. Bu ac\u0131 ger\u00e7ek, dini fanatizme ya da otoriter ideolojiye kap\u0131lmam\u0131\u015f t\u00fcm \u0130ranl\u0131lar\u0131 Mollalar y\u00f6netimi alt\u0131nda geleceklerini yeniden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmeye itmeli. \u0130srail (ya da bunu kim yapt\u0131ysa), ister Haniye\u2019nin ziyareti s\u0131ras\u0131nda patlat\u0131lmadan iki ay \u00f6nce yerle\u015ftirilen bir bomba ister hassas g\u00fcd\u00fcml\u00fc silah kullanm\u0131\u015f olsun, sonu\u00e7 ayn\u0131d\u0131r. Haniye \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc ve\u00a0\u00a0\u0130ran da bunun kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda aciz ve a\u015fa\u011f\u0131lanm\u0131\u015f bir halde duruyor.<\/p>\n
Peki sonra oldu? Haniye suikast\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinden yakla\u015f\u0131k bir ay ge\u00e7mesine ra\u011fmen \u0130ran hen\u00fcz yan\u0131t vermedi. \u0130srail’in 25 A\u011fustos’ta Hizbullah’a y\u00f6nelik \u00f6nleyici sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 \u0130ran’\u0131n stratejisinin bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 sekteye u\u011fratm\u0131\u015f olabilir. Durum istikrars\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. \u0130srail’i savunmaya kararl\u0131 olan ABD bundan \u00e7ok daha \u00f6nce harekete ge\u00e7mi\u015fti. ABD u\u00e7ak gemisi USS Abraham Lincoln\u2019\u00fc, daha sonra eve d\u00f6nen USS Theodore Roosevelt u\u00e7ak gemisi ile ayn\u0131 zamana denk gelecek \u015fekilde Ortado\u011fu’da konu\u015fland\u0131rd\u0131. \u015eimdi n\u00fckleer enerjiyle \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan ve seyir f\u00fczesi ile donat\u0131lm\u0131\u015f\u00a0\u00a0USS Georgia denizalt\u0131s\u0131 da burada konu\u015flanm\u0131\u015f durumda. Bunlara ABD’nin halihaz\u0131rda var olan askeri g\u00fc\u00e7leri de ekleniyor ve bunlar hem sald\u0131r\u0131 hem de savunma a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan dikkate al\u0131nmas\u0131 gereken ve varl\u0131klar\u0131 tek ba\u015f\u0131na \u0130ran’\u0131n yan\u0131t\u0131n\u0131 geciktirebilecek g\u00fc\u00e7lerdir.<\/p>\n
\u0130srail, \u0130ran’\u0131n hava savunma sistemlerini \u00e7\u00f6kertmek i\u00e7in kesin sald\u0131r\u0131larda bulunmay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. Bunlar\u0131 n\u00fckleer ve balistik f\u00fcze programlar\u0131na ve petrol altyap\u0131s\u0131na sald\u0131r\u0131lar izleyebilir. Dahas\u0131 Hamaney bile bir hedef olabilir.<\/p>\n
Kendi evinde konu\u015fland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f Amerikan u\u00e7ak gemisinin varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hi\u00e7bir \u00fclke g\u00f6rmezden gelemez, ne var ki \u0130ran’\u0131n 13 Nisan’da 320 f\u00fcze ve \u0130HA ile yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi \u0130srail’e yeniden sald\u0131rma konusundaki teredd\u00fcd\u00fcn\u00fcn temel nedeni, zor bir stratejik ikilemden kaynaklan\u0131yor. Bir\u00e7ok ki\u015finin bu \u0130srail operasyonun Mollalar\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131lad\u0131\u011f\u0131na inanmas\u0131ndan sonra rejim, g\u00fcvenilirli\u011fini ve cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc geri kazanmak i\u00e7in sert bir yan\u0131t vermesi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc Hizbullah’\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi sald\u0131r\u0131 gibi basit bir sald\u0131r\u0131 bunun i\u00e7in yeterli de\u011fil.<\/p>\n
Buna ilaveten baz\u0131 g\u00f6zlemciler, \u0130ran’\u0131n \u0130srail’i \u00f6nceden uyararak \u0130srail savunmas\u0131n\u0131n sald\u0131r\u0131ya kar\u015f\u0131 koymas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulayarak, nisan ay\u0131ndaki \u0130ran sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n i\u00e7y\u00fcz\u00fcn\u00fc sorguluyorlar. \u00d6te yandan Ba\u015fkan Biden’\u0131n ifadesiyle \u0130srail \u201ckazanabilir\u201d ve minimum yan\u0131tla kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verebilir. Bu analiz spek\u00fclatif kalsa da haberler ayn\u0131 zamanda \u0130ran’\u0131n balistik f\u00fczelerini f\u0131rlatmada \u00f6nemli ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131klar ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131na da i\u015faret ediyor. Bu hikayenin do\u011frulu\u011fu bir yana, \u0130ran s\u00f6z konusu sald\u0131r\u0131da yaln\u0131zca minimum d\u00fczeyde bir kay\u0131p ve maddi hasara yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla benzer bir yan\u0131t ister \u0130ran’dan, ister Hizbullah’tan, ister ba\u015fka bir ter\u00f6rist vekilinden gelsin, bu sefer yeterli olmayacak.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran’\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011fu as\u0131l meydan okuma, \u0130ran’\u0131n stratejik ikilemini derinle\u015ftiren ger\u00e7ek bir cezaland\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n uygulanmas\u0131nda yat\u0131yor. \u0130ran, daha da cesurla\u015fan \u0130srail Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Binyamin Netanyahu’nun nisan ay\u0131nda oldu\u011fu gibi bu kez Washington’un bask\u0131lar\u0131na boyun e\u011fmemesinden korkuyor. Biden’\u0131n art\u0131k \u201ctopal \u00f6rdek\u201d oldu\u011fu ve yakla\u015fan ABD ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imlerine ili\u015fkin belirsizlik de g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u0130srail bu an\u0131 kesin bir darbe vurmak i\u00e7in ideal bir an olarak g\u00f6rebilir. B\u00f6yle bir sald\u0131r\u0131, \u0130ran\u2019daki birka\u00e7 f\u00fcze f\u0131rlatma sahas\u0131n\u0131 hedef alman\u0131n \u00f6tesine ge\u00e7ebilir. \u0130srail \u00f6ncelikle \u0130ran’\u0131n hava savunma sistemlerini \u00e7\u00f6kertebilir. Bunu n\u00fckleer ve balistik f\u00fcze programlar\u0131na, petrol altyap\u0131s\u0131na veya \u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131’na ait \u00fclke \u00e7ap\u0131ndaki \u00f6nemli ve askeri varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar izleyebilir. Dahas\u0131 Dini Lider Hamaney bile hedef olabilir.<\/p>\n
\u0130srail’in sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 ciddi hasara neden olursa, \u0130slam Devrimi’nin istikrar\u0131 bir b\u00fct\u00fcn olarak tehlikeye girebilir ve bu, Ayetullahlar\u0131n hafife almas\u0131 pek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmayan bir risk. Yurt i\u00e7inde ise yayg\u0131n siyasi, ekonomik ve sosyal huzursuzluklar nedeniyle Mollalar\u0131n iktidar \u00fczerindeki hakimiyetleri her zamankinden daha k\u0131r\u0131lgan. Bu ko\u015fullar alt\u0131nda Tahran, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verme ihtiyac\u0131 ile rejimin \u00e7\u00f6kmesi korkusu aras\u0131nda felce u\u011fram\u0131\u015f durumda. Independent Arabia’n\u0131n aktard\u0131\u011f\u0131 analize g\u00f6re \u0130ran, eylemsizli\u011fini hakl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131karmak amac\u0131yla, \u0130srailli rehinelerin serbest b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda Hamas ile \u0130srail aras\u0131nda ate\u015fkes sa\u011flanmas\u0131n\u0131 ama\u00e7layan Katar liderli\u011findeki m\u00fczakereleri aksatmamak i\u00e7in yan\u0131t vermekten ka\u00e7\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 iddia ediyor. Ancak g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin \u00e7\u0131kmaza girmesiyle Tahran, m\u00fczakerelerde daha fazla gecikmeyi memnuniyetle kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor ama Gazze i\u00e7in endi\u015felendi\u011finden de\u011fil, aksine, kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011fu stratejik ikilem ile ba\u015fa \u00e7\u0131kabilmesi i\u00e7in ona de\u011ferli zaman kazand\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in.<\/p>\n
Ate\u015fkes g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131kla sonu\u00e7lanmas\u0131, \u0130ran’\u0131n \u0130srail’e kar\u015f\u0131 uzun vadeli \u201cAte\u015f Ku\u015fa\u011f\u0131\u201d stratejisi ile yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ayn\u0131 ikilemin tuza\u011f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fmesi anlam\u0131na geliyor. \u0130ran bu stratejiyi Hamas’\u0131n 7 Ekim 2023’te d\u00fczenledi\u011fi vah\u015fi sald\u0131r\u0131yla beklenmedik bir \u015fekilde ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmi\u015fti. Ama Tahran belki de bu sald\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 yanl\u0131\u015f de\u011ferlendirdi, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc Hamas sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 \u0130srail’in azmini k\u0131rmakta ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z oldu. Bunun yerine Netanyahu, Hamas’\u0131n siyasi ve askeri g\u00fc\u00e7 ve kapasitesini \u00e7\u00f6kertme hedefine ula\u015fmaya daha yak\u0131n.<\/p>\n
Gazze’deki yayg\u0131n kaos, \u0130srail’in onlarca y\u0131ld\u0131r devam eden, Gazze’deki siviller ile ne yap\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00fclkelere tekrar yerle\u015ftirilmelerinin yeniden de\u011ferlendirilip de\u011ferlendirilemeyece\u011fi sorusunu yeniden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmesinin kap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 da a\u00e7t\u0131. \u0130kinci D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131’n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, anavatanlar\u0131na d\u00f6nmelerinin imkans\u0131z oldu\u011fu milyonlarca m\u00fclteci yeniden yerle\u015ftirildi. Yaln\u0131zca Filistinliler bunun d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda tutuldular, bunun yerine kal\u0131tsal m\u00fclteci muamelesi g\u00f6rd\u00fcler ve \u0130srail’in varl\u0131\u011f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 bir silah olarak kullan\u0131ld\u0131lar. \u0130ran ve Hamas’\u0131n 7 Ekim 2023’te ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131 bu k\u00f6hne stratejiyi tersy\u00fcz etmi\u015f olabilir.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran, n\u00fckleer silahlara sahip b\u00f6lgesel bir g\u00fc\u00e7 olarak imaj\u0131n\u0131 korumak umuduyla asgari d\u00fczeyde icraatlarda bulunmay\u0131 se\u00e7erse, ter\u00f6rist vekilleri Tahran’a ba\u011fl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 sorgulamaya ba\u015flayabilirler. E\u011fer Ayetullahlar ter\u00f6rist liderleri Tahran’da koruyam\u0131yorsa, tehlikeler ve belirsizlikler ile dolu bir gelecekte onlar\u0131 Tahran’\u0131n emirlerini yerine getirmeye ne te\u015fvik edecek? \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik olu\u015fan bu zay\u0131fl\u0131k alg\u0131s\u0131, d\u0131\u015far\u0131daki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6ren \u0130ran’daki i\u00e7 muhalefeti harekete ge\u00e7iremez mi? Rejimin i\u00e7 d\u00fc\u015fmanlar\u0131, dinci rejimin me\u015frulu\u011funa ve varl\u0131\u011f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kmak i\u00e7in uygun zaman\u0131n geldi\u011fi sonucuna varamazlar m\u0131?<\/p>\n
John Bolton- Amerikal\u0131 diplomat ve politikac\u0131. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump d\u00f6neminde 9 Nisan 2018 ve 10 Eyl\u00fcl 2019 tarihleri aras\u0131nda Ulusal G\u00fcvenlik Dan\u0131\u015fman\u0131 olarak g\u00f6rev yapt\u0131<\/strong><\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u0130ran, \u0130smail Haniye suikast\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinden yakla\u015f\u0131k bir ay ge\u00e7mesine ra\u011fmen \u0130srail’e yan\u0131t vermedi. ABD\u2019nin eski Ulusal G\u00fcvenlik Dan\u0131\u015fman\u0131 John Bolton, Independent Arabia i\u00e7in yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131 makalede Tahran ile Tel Aviv aras\u0131ndaki gerilimin t\u0131rmanma olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 ve \u0130ran Dini Lideri\u2019nin neden hayat\u0131 i\u00e7in korkmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini yazd\u0131. Bolton\u2019un Independent Arabia i\u00e7in yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131 makale \u015f\u00f6yle: Ayetullah Hamaney g\u00fcvenlik korumas\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmal\u0131 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1030794,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[26],"tags":[31],"class_list":["post-1030793","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-forum","tag-onemli"],"blocksy_meta":[],"seo_head":"\n