Ortado\u011fu ve Yak\u0131n Do\u011fu, bir kez daha tarihsel bir e\u015fikte duruyor. Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri ile \u0130srail’in \u0130ran’daki mollalar rejimine y\u00f6nelik do\u011frudan askeri bask\u0131s\u0131, yaln\u0131zca taktik bir hava harek\u00e2t\u0131 de\u011fil; b\u00f6lgesel g\u00fc\u00e7 dengelerini yeniden kurmaya d\u00f6n\u00fck stratejik bir m\u00fcdahale niteli\u011fi ta\u015f\u0131maktad\u0131r. Washington ve Tel Aviv y\u00f6netimlerinin s\u00f6ylem d\u00fczeyinde “rejim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi” vurgusu yapmalar\u0131, meselenin n\u00fckleer program ya da balistik kapasiteyle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; \u0130ran’\u0131n b\u00f6lgesel mimarideki rol\u00fcn\u00fcn hedef al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermektedir. Ancak tarihsel deneyimler, hava bombard\u0131man\u0131n\u0131n tek ba\u015f\u0131na ideolojik \u00f6rg\u00fctsel derinli\u011fi olan rejimleri devirmeye yetmedi\u011fini defalarca kan\u0131tlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n
1979’da ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen \u0130ran \u0130slam Devrimi, yaln\u0131zca bir iktidar de\u011fi\u015fimi de\u011fil; devlet ayg\u0131t\u0131n\u0131n ideolojik olarak yeniden in\u015fas\u0131yd\u0131. Ayetullah Humeyni liderli\u011finde kurulan teokratik sistem, klasik otoriter rejimlerden farkl\u0131 olarak dini me\u015fruiyet, devrimci mobilizasyon ve g\u00fcvenlik ayg\u0131tlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u00e7 i\u00e7e ge\u00e7ti\u011fi hibrit bir yap\u0131 olu\u015fturdu. Bu yap\u0131n\u0131n belkemi\u011fini ise \u0130slam Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu (IRGC) olu\u015fturmaktad\u0131r. IRGC yaln\u0131zca askeri bir g\u00fc\u00e7 de\u011fildir; ekonomik, istihbari ve ideolojik alanlarda da rejimin omurgas\u0131d\u0131r. Bu nedenle d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen hava operasyonlar\u0131, altyap\u0131y\u0131 zay\u0131flatabilir; fakat rejimin i\u00e7 g\u00fcvenlik kapasitesini ve ideolojik mobilizasyon mekanizmas\u0131n\u0131 tek ba\u015f\u0131na \u00e7\u00f6kertemez.<\/p>\n
ABD’nin Ortado\u011fu’daki m\u00fcdahale tecr\u00fcbesi, 2003’teki Irak Sava\u015f\u0131 ile somutla\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Saddam H\u00fcseyin rejimi haftalar i\u00e7inde askeri olarak y\u0131k\u0131lm\u0131\u015f; ancak devletin kurumsal yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n tasfiyesi uzun s\u00fcreli kaos \u00fcretmi\u015ftir. Washington’daki stratejik ak\u0131l i\u00e7in \u0130ran dosyas\u0131, Irak’tan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan dersler nedeniyle daha karma\u015f\u0131kt\u0131r. \u0130ran, Irak’tan farkl\u0131 olarak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ulusal tarih anlat\u0131s\u0131na, k\u00f6kl\u00fc devlet gelene\u011fine ve b\u00f6lgesel vekil a\u011flar\u0131na sahiptir. Hizbullah, Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi ve Husiler gibi yap\u0131lar, Tahran’\u0131n stratejik derinlik doktrinini olu\u015fturmaktad\u0131r. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla \u0130ran’a y\u00f6nelik her do\u011frudan sald\u0131r\u0131, yaln\u0131zca ulusal s\u0131n\u0131rlar i\u00e7inde de\u011fil; L\u00fcbnan’dan Yemen’e kadar uzanan geni\u015f bir co\u011frafyada asimetrik kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k \u00fcretme potansiyeli ta\u015f\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Washington ve Tel Aviv’in olas\u0131 stratejik hesaplar\u0131n\u0131 realist paradigma \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde de\u011ferlendirmek gerekir. Realizm, devletlerin ideolojik de\u011fil \u00e7\u0131kar temelli davrand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 varsayar. Bu ba\u011flamda \u0130ran’\u0131n zay\u0131flat\u0131lmas\u0131, \u0130srail’in g\u00fcvenli\u011fi kadar K\u00f6rfez enerji hatlar\u0131n\u0131n kontrol\u00fc ve \u00c7in, Rusya ekseninin b\u00f6lgedeki n\u00fcfuzunun s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131yla da ili\u015fkilidir. Donald Trump d\u00f6neminde imzalanan n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmadan \u00e7ekilme karar\u0131 ve Benjamin Netanyahu h\u00fck\u00fcmetlerinin \u0130ran kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 sert g\u00fcvenlik doktrini, bu stratejik \u00e7er\u00e7evenin devaml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermektedir.<\/p>\n
Bu ba\u011flamda Trump’\u0131n K\u00fcrt akt\u00f6rlerle y\u00fcr\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fc temaslar da dikkat \u00e7ekicidir. Washington’da ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilen g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerde Mesud Barzani ve Bafel Talabani gibi G\u00fcney K\u00fcrdistanl\u0131 liderlerle yap\u0131lan temaslar, \u0130ran dosyas\u0131n\u0131n yaln\u0131zca devletler aras\u0131 de\u011fil, b\u00f6lgesel akt\u00f6rler \u00fczerinden de okundu\u011funu g\u00f6stermektedir. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler, K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesi’nin \u0130ran’a kom\u015fu jeostratejik konumu nedeniyle Washington a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan potansiyel bir denge unsuru olarak de\u011ferlendirildi\u011fini ortaya koymaktad\u0131r. Ancak realist siyaset, b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7lerin K\u00fcrtlerle kurdu\u011fu ili\u015fkinin normatif de\u011fil, ara\u00e7sal oldu\u011funu defalarca kan\u0131tlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. 1975 sonras\u0131 ya\u015fananlar ve 2017 referandum s\u00fcrecinde uluslararas\u0131 deste\u011fin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, bu ger\u00e7e\u011fin tarihsel \u00f6rnekleridir.<\/p>\n
Rejim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi senaryolar\u0131 yaln\u0131zca d\u0131\u015f bombard\u0131mana dayanmaz. \u0130\u00e7 dinamiklerin harekete ge\u00e7irilmesi esast\u0131r. \u0130ran toplumunda ekonomik kriz, gen\u00e7 n\u00fcfusun \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck talepleri ve kad\u0131n hareketinin y\u00fckseli\u015fi belirginle\u015fmi\u015ftir. Mahsa Amini protestolar\u0131, rejimin me\u015fruiyet krizini g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr k\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bununla birlikte \u0130ran muhalefeti par\u00e7al\u0131d\u0131r; s\u00fcrg\u00fcndeki monar\u015fist \u00e7evreler, reformist ak\u0131mlar ve etnik temelli hareketler aras\u0131nda ortak bir program bulunmamaktad\u0131r. Bu durum, d\u0131\u015f m\u00fcdahalenin i\u00e7 isyanla birle\u015fmesini zorla\u015ft\u0131rmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n
K\u00fcrt perspektifinden bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda mesele daha da karma\u015f\u0131kt\u0131r. \u0130ran’daki K\u00fcrt b\u00f6lgeleri tarihsel olarak merkezile\u015fmeye kar\u015f\u0131 direni\u015f alanlar\u0131 olmu\u015ftur. K\u00fcrdistan Demokrat Partisi \u0130ran (KDPI) ve PAK gibi yap\u0131lar, zaman zaman silahl\u0131 ve siyasal m\u00fccadele y\u00fcr\u00fctm\u00fc\u015flerdir. Ancak K\u00fcrt meselesi \u0130ran’da yaln\u0131zca etnik bir hak talebi de\u011fil; ayn\u0131 zamanda b\u00f6lgesel g\u00fc\u00e7lerin manip\u00fclasyonuna a\u00e7\u0131k bir jeopolitik fay hatt\u0131d\u0131r. ABD veya \u0130srail’in olas\u0131 rejim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi planlar\u0131nda K\u00fcrt unsurlara dayanma ihtimali, tarihsel olarak K\u00fcrtlerin b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7ler taraf\u0131ndan ara\u00e7salla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ger\u00e7e\u011fini hat\u0131rlatmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran’\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131 senaryosu, K\u00fcrt milleti a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan hem imk\u00e2n hem de ciddi riskler bar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131r. G\u00fc\u00e7 bo\u015flu\u011fu ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda en \u00f6rg\u00fctl\u00fc ve d\u0131\u015f destekle temas kurabilen yap\u0131lar avantaj kazan\u0131r; fakat bu ayn\u0131 zamanda b\u00f6lgesel devletlerin sert m\u00fcdahalesini tetikleyebilir. T\u00fcrkiye, Rusya ve \u00c7in gibi akt\u00f6rler, \u0130ran’\u0131n par\u00e7alanmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 refleks geli\u015ftirebilir. B\u00f6yle bir tabloda K\u00fcrt co\u011frafyas\u0131 yeniden vek\u00e2let sava\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n sahas\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015febilir.<\/p>\n
Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla mesele, yaln\u0131zca mollalar rejiminin devrilip devrilmeyece\u011fi de\u011fildir. As\u0131l mesele, \u0130ran sonras\u0131 olu\u015fabilecek siyasal d\u00fczenin niteli\u011fidir. E\u011fer yeni yap\u0131 merkeziyet\u00e7i ve g\u00fcvenlik eksenli bir devlet modeli \u00fcretirse, K\u00fcrtlerin kolektif hak talepleri yeniden bast\u0131r\u0131labilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k federal ya da \u00e7o\u011fulcu bir anayasal d\u00fczen ihtimali, K\u00fcrtlerin stat\u00fc aray\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir. Ancak bu ihtimalin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi, d\u0131\u015f bombard\u0131mandan \u00e7ok i\u00e7 siyasal mutabakat\u0131n niteli\u011fine ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Ortado\u011fu’daki bu k\u0131r\u0131lma an\u0131, K\u00fcrt milleti a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan duygusal de\u011fil stratejik bir okuma gerektirir. B\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7lerin planlar\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fkendir; \u00e7\u0131kar dengeleri h\u0131zla d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr. K\u00fcrt siyasal akt\u00f6rlerinin temel \u00f6nceli\u011fi, ulusal birlik, kurumsal kapasite ve uluslararas\u0131 hukuk temelinde me\u015fruiyet \u00fcretme yetene\u011fini art\u0131rmak olmal\u0131d\u0131r. \u0130ran krizi, b\u00f6lgesel jeopoliti\u011fin yeniden yaz\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir s\u00fcre\u00e7tir; bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te \u00f6zne olabilenler kazan\u0131r, yaln\u0131zca ba\u015fkalar\u0131n\u0131n planlar\u0131nda yer alanlar ise tarihin sert dalgalar\u0131 aras\u0131nda savrulur.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Ortado\u011fu ve Yak\u0131n Do\u011fu, bir kez daha tarihsel bir e\u015fikte duruyor. Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri ile \u0130srail’in \u0130ran’daki mollalar rejimine y\u00f6nelik do\u011frudan askeri bask\u0131s\u0131, yaln\u0131zca taktik bir hava harek\u00e2t\u0131 de\u011fil; b\u00f6lgesel g\u00fc\u00e7 dengelerini yeniden kurmaya d\u00f6n\u00fck stratejik bir m\u00fcdahale niteli\u011fi ta\u015f\u0131maktad\u0131r. Washington ve Tel Aviv y\u00f6netimlerinin s\u00f6ylem d\u00fczeyinde “rejim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi” vurgusu yapmalar\u0131, meselenin n\u00fckleer program ya […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1036364,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[26],"tags":[31],"class_list":["post-1036627","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-forum","tag-onemli"],"blocksy_meta":[],"seo_head":"\n