Ortado\u011fu, tarih boyunca b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7 rekabetlerine, rejim \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015flerine ve harita yeniden d\u00fczenlemelerine sahne olmu\u015ftur. K\u00fcrdistan co\u011frafyas\u0131 ise bu rekabetlerin en yo\u011fun ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131, en \u00e7ok y\u0131k\u0131ma u\u011frayan ve s\u00fcrekli d\u0131\u015f g\u00fc\u00e7lerin m\u00fccadele alan\u0131 haline gelen stratejik bir b\u00f6lge olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bu co\u011frafya K\u00fcrdlere defalarca f\u0131rsatlar sunmu\u015f, ancak i\u00e7 b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015fl\u00fck ve d\u0131\u015f ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k nedeniyle bu f\u0131rsatlar \u00e7o\u011funlukla yeni ma\u011fduriyetlere d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr.<\/p>\n
2003 Irak i\u015fgaliyle ba\u015flayan k\u0131r\u0131lma s\u00fcreci, 7 Ekim 2023 Hamas sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131, 2024 sonunda Esad rejiminin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ve 2025-2026\u2019da \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik ABD-\u0130srail operasyonlar\u0131yla yeni bir a\u015famaya evrilmi\u015ftir. Bu geli\u015fmeler \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u201c\u015eii Hilali\u201d projesini \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde par\u00e7alam\u0131\u015f ve Direni\u015f Ekseni\u2019ni ciddi \u015fekilde zay\u0131flatm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bununla birlikte vekil a\u011flar\u0131 (Irak\u2019taki baz\u0131 \u015eii milisler, L\u00fcbnan Hizbullah\u2019\u0131 ve Yemen\u2019deki Husiler) asimetrik tehdit kapasitelerini h\u00e2l\u00e2 korumaktad\u0131r. B\u00f6lgede ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan g\u00fc\u00e7 bo\u015fluklar\u0131, yeni ittifak aray\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 ve rekabetleri h\u0131zland\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n
ABD, 2003\u2019te bozdu\u011fu dengeyi yeniden kurma \u00e7abas\u0131ndad\u0131r. Saddam\u2019\u0131 devirerek \u0130ran\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 tarihsel denge unsurunu ortadan kald\u0131rm\u0131\u015f, Irak\u2019\u0131n \u015eii n\u00fcfusunun siyasalla\u015fmas\u0131yla Tahran\u2019a derinlik kazand\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bug\u00fcn ise y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftirerek \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n vekil a\u011flar\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flatmay\u0131, Suriye koridorunu kesmeyi ve Irak\u2019\u0131 yeniden dengeleyici bir akt\u00f6r h\u00e2line getirmeyi hedefliyor. ABD\u2019nin T\u00fcrkiye B\u00fcy\u00fckel\u00e7isi Tom Barrack\u2019a Suriye ve Irak\u2019\u0131 da kapsayan \u00f6zel temsilcilik g\u00f6revi vermesi, bu stratejinin somut g\u00f6stergelerinden biridir.<\/p>\n
Bu jeopolitik d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm, G\u00fcney K\u00fcrdistan Y\u00f6netimi i\u00e7in hem \u00f6nemli f\u0131rsatlar hem de ciddi riskler bar\u0131nd\u0131rmaktad\u0131r. Rojava\u2019da K\u00fcrdler zorlu bir s\u00fcre\u00e7ten ge\u00e7erken, G\u00fcney\u2019deki kazan\u0131mlar riske at\u0131lmamal\u0131d\u0131r. Hewl\u00ear, ABD-\u0130srail ekseninin \u0130ran kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 stratejilerinde giderek kritik bir konum kazanmakta; bu durum \u0130ran ve ba\u011fl\u0131 Irak milis gruplar\u0131ndan misilleme riskini art\u0131rmaktad\u0131r. Ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkeleri (Suudi Arabistan ve BAE), Rusya ve \u00c7in\u2019in b\u00f6lgesel etkisi de g\u00fc\u00e7lenmektedir.<\/p>\n
K\u00fcrd tarihi, d\u0131\u015f akt\u00f6rlere a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n a\u011f\u0131r bedelini bir\u00e7ok kez \u00f6demi\u015ftir. En \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131 \u00f6rnek 1975 Cezayir Anla\u015fmas\u0131\u2019d\u0131r. \u0130ran \u015eah\u0131 ile Irak aras\u0131nda imzalanan bu anla\u015fma uyar\u0131nca \u0130ran, G\u00fcney K\u00fcrdlerine verdi\u011fi kritik deste\u011fi aniden kesmi\u015f, Irak ise \u015eatt\u00fclarap\u2019ta taviz alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Sonu\u00e7 felaket olmu\u015f; K\u00fcrd direni\u015fi \u00e7\u00f6km\u00fc\u015f, on binlerce K\u00fcrd \u0130ran\u2019a s\u0131\u011f\u0131nm\u0131\u015f ve Arapla\u015ft\u0131rma politikalar\u0131 h\u0131z kazanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu olay, m\u00fcttefiklerin kendi ulusal \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131 u\u011fruna K\u00fcrdleri kolayca feda edebilece\u011fi ger\u00e7e\u011fini ac\u0131 bir \u015fekilde g\u00f6stermi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcn benzer riskler devam etmektedir. K\u00fcrdler i\u00e7in en acil ve belirleyici g\u00f6rev, i\u00e7 birli\u011fin sa\u011flanmas\u0131d\u0131r. Hewl\u00ear-S\u00fcleymaniye iki ba\u015fl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve KDP-YNK b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015fl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc h\u00e2l\u00e2 en b\u00fcy\u00fck zafiyettir. Bu b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015fl\u00fck, P\u00ea\u015fmerge\u2019nin tam birle\u015fmesini geciktirmi\u015f, b\u00f6lgeyi d\u0131\u015f tehditlere kar\u015f\u0131 savunmas\u0131z b\u0131rakm\u0131\u015f ve kom\u015fu \u00fclkelerin manip\u00fclasyonuna zemin haz\u0131rlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. G\u00fcney K\u00fcrdistan\u2019\u0131n bu d\u00f6nemde f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilmesi ve riskleri y\u00f6netebilmesi, \u00f6ncelikle i\u00e7 kapasitesini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmesine ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r. Deneyimler, d\u0131\u015f deste\u011fin ge\u00e7ici olabilece\u011fini ve kal\u0131c\u0131 kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n ancak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kurumlar, ekonomik \u00f6zerklik ve ulusal birlik \u00fczerine in\u015fa edilebilece\u011fini g\u00f6stermektedir. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan temel unsurlar \u015funlard\u0131r:<\/p>\n
K\u00fcrd siyaseti, d\u0131\u015f akt\u00f6rlerle ili\u015fkilerini \u201cba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k\u201d tuza\u011f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fmeden y\u00f6netmek zorundad\u0131r. Bu ba\u011flamda olas\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131mlar \u015f\u00f6yle \u00f6zetlenebilir:<\/p>\n
D\u00f6rt par\u00e7al\u0131 K\u00fcrdistan ger\u00e7e\u011fi ulusal bilin\u00e7te korunmal\u0131, ancak diplomatik dilde \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc ve yap\u0131c\u0131 bir \u00fcslup tercih edilmelidir. \u201cKazan-kazan\u201d s\u00f6ylemi, taviz vermek i\u00e7in de\u011fil, ulusal pozisyonlar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmek i\u00e7in bir ara\u00e7 olarak kullan\u0131lmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Sonu\u00e7 olarak, Ortado\u011fu bir kez daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir k\u0131r\u0131lma ya\u015f\u0131yor. G\u00fc\u00e7 bo\u015fluklar\u0131, \u00e7\u00f6ken eksenler ve yeni ittifak aray\u0131\u015flar\u0131, K\u00fcrdler i\u00e7in hem tarihi bir f\u0131rsat hem de vahim bir tehlike bar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131yor. Tarih tekerr\u00fcr ediyor: K\u00fcrdler yine \u201ckader an\u0131\u201dyla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. Ancak ge\u00e7mi\u015f, ac\u0131 bir ger\u00e7e\u011fi defalarca kan\u0131tlad\u0131: \u0130\u00e7 birlik ve kurumsal g\u00fc\u00e7 olmadan bu anlar, yeni ma\u011fduriyetlere ve kay\u0131plara d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. 1975 Cezayir Anla\u015fmas\u0131, h\u00e2l\u00e2 unutulmamas\u0131 gereken en a\u011f\u0131r derstir. G\u00fcney K\u00fcrdistan y\u00f6neticileri art\u0131k karar vermek zorunda: Ya tarihin seyircisi olmaya devam edecekler ya da kendi kaderlerinin proaktif mimar\u0131 olacaklar.<\/p>\n
Bunun yolu nettir; Hewl\u00ear-S\u00fcleymaniye b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015fl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc a\u015fmak, P\u00ea\u015fmerge\u2019yi ulusal orduya d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrmek, kaynaklar\u0131 ak\u0131lc\u0131 y\u00f6netmek ve duygusal sloganlar yerine so\u011fukkanl\u0131, cesur ve hesapl\u0131 bir strateji izlemektir. \u0130\u00e7 b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015fl\u00fck, d\u0131\u015f d\u00fc\u015fmanlar\u0131n en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc m\u00fcttefikidir. Ulusal irade ve birlik sa\u011flanmadan at\u0131lacak her ad\u0131m riskli ve ge\u00e7icidir. K\u00fcrd siyaseti, art\u0131k \u201cbeklemek\u201dten kurtulup \u201c\u015fekillendirmek\u201d zorundad\u0131r. Bu k\u0131r\u0131lgan d\u00f6nemde ak\u0131l, cesaret ve birlik, tek kurtulu\u015f yoludur.<\/p>\n
Bu analiz dinamik bir s\u00fcre\u00e7 \u00fczerine kuruludur. Geli\u015fmeler yak\u0131ndan takip edilmeli ve stratejiler ulusal \u00e7\u0131karlar temelinde s\u00fcrekli g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irilmelidir.<\/p>\n
S\u00fcleyman Akkoyun<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Ortado\u011fu, tarih boyunca b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7 rekabetlerine, rejim \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015flerine ve harita yeniden d\u00fczenlemelerine sahne olmu\u015ftur. K\u00fcrdistan co\u011frafyas\u0131 ise bu rekabetlerin en yo\u011fun ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131, en \u00e7ok y\u0131k\u0131ma u\u011frayan ve s\u00fcrekli d\u0131\u015f g\u00fc\u00e7lerin m\u00fccadele alan\u0131 haline gelen stratejik bir b\u00f6lge olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bu co\u011frafya K\u00fcrdlere defalarca f\u0131rsatlar sunmu\u015f, ancak i\u00e7 b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015fl\u00fck ve d\u0131\u015f ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k nedeniyle bu f\u0131rsatlar […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1038402,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[26],"tags":[31],"class_list":["post-1038401","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-forum","tag-onemli"],"blocksy_meta":[],"seo_head":"\n