ABD Eski Ulusal G\u00fcvenlik Dan\u0131\u015fman\u0131 John Bolton,\u00a0 Pe\u015fmerge g\u00fc\u00e7lerine verilen deste\u011fin kesilmesinin sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 hakk\u0131nda bir yaz\u0131 kaleme ald\u0131. Bolton Pe\u015fmergeye yard\u0131mlar\u0131n kesilmesini ele\u015ftirdi.<\/p>\n
Bolton’un makalesi ise \u015f\u00f6yle:<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019nin tarihsel m\u00fcttefiki olan K\u00fcrt Pe\u015fmerge g\u00fc\u00e7leri; Trump\u2019\u0131n \u2018bitmeyen sava\u015flar\u0131 sona erdirme\u2019 vaadini yerine getirme k\u0131l\u0131f\u0131 alt\u0131nda, Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki askeri varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 azaltmay\u0131 hedefleyen izolasyon yanl\u0131s\u0131 Amerikal\u0131 yetkililerin y\u00fcr\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fc politikan\u0131n son kurban\u0131 oldu.<\/p>\n
K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesel Y\u00f6netimi\u2019ne (KBY) y\u00f6nelik ABD askeri yard\u0131mlar\u0131 daha \u00f6nce g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f bir tehdit alt\u0131nda. BBC taraf\u0131ndan haz\u0131rlanan bir rapora g\u00f6re Amerikal\u0131 yetkililer, K\u00fcrt makamlar\u0131na yard\u0131mlar\u0131n -b\u00fct\u00fcn ABD g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin Irak\u2019tan \u00e7ekilmesine paralel olarak- 30 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de kesilece\u011fini bildirdi. Daha \u00f6nceki raporlarda g\u00fcvenlik yard\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n sonland\u0131r\u0131labilece\u011fi ihtimalinden bahsedilmi\u015f olsa da net bir son tarihin belirlenmesi, bu ihtimali uygulanmaya her zamankinden daha yak\u0131n hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Washington\u2019un \u0130ran ile sava\u015f sonras\u0131 d\u00f6neme ili\u015fkin strateji geli\u015ftirmesi beklenen bir zamanda, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n sava\u015f s\u00fcrecinde net hedeflerden yoksun olmas\u0131 bu y\u00f6ndeki her t\u00fcrl\u00fc ciddi \u00e7abay\u0131 engelliyor gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. B\u00f6lgeye y\u00f6nelik tutarl\u0131 bir vizyon haz\u0131rlamak yerine, y\u00f6netim i\u00e7indeki izolasyon yanl\u0131s\u0131 yetkililer, Trump\u2019\u0131n \u2018bitmeyen sava\u015flar\u0131 sona erdirme\u2019 vaadini yerine getirme k\u0131l\u0131f\u0131 alt\u0131nda, Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki ABD askeri varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ne pahas\u0131na olursa olsun azaltmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. ABD\u2019nin tarihsel m\u00fcttefiki olan K\u00fcrt Pe\u015fmerge g\u00fc\u00e7leri de bu politikan\u0131n son kurban\u0131 olmu\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
G\u00f6zlemciler, kademeli ABD \u00e7ekilmesinin sadece devam eden \u0130ran tehditleri nedeniyle de\u011fil, ayn\u0131 zamanda Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n Osmanl\u0131 \u0130mparatorlu\u011fu\u2019nun ihti\u015fam\u0131n\u0131 yeniden canland\u0131rmaya y\u00f6nelik b\u00f6lgesel h\u0131rslar\u0131 sonucunda da b\u00fcy\u00fck riskler ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulunuyor. B\u00f6lgede devam eden \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar ve manevralar g\u00f6lgesinde, b\u00f6lgesel veya uluslararas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lerin K\u00fcrtlerin bir as\u0131rl\u0131k ac\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden de\u011ferlendirmeye niyetli olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Ancak ayn\u0131 zamanda, ba\u015fta ABD olmak \u00fczere etkili akt\u00f6rler, \u0130ran rejiminin 1979\u2019da \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti\u2019nin kurulmas\u0131ndan bu yana en zay\u0131f d\u00f6neminden ge\u00e7ti\u011fi bir s\u0131rada, Tahran\u2019\u0131n \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131na hizmet edecek kararlar alman\u0131n sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edemez.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019deki ara se\u00e7im kampanyalar\u0131 \u015fu anda Beyaz Saray\u2019\u0131n t\u00fcm dikkatini \u00e7ekse de bu s\u00fcre\u00e7 3 Kas\u0131m\u2019da sona erecek ve Trump\u2019\u0131n Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7alkant\u0131larla y\u00fczle\u015fmekten ba\u015fka se\u00e7ene\u011fi kalmayacak.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n, \u0130srail ve K\u00f6rfez Arap \u00fclkelerine kar\u015f\u0131 uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u2018ate\u015f \u00e7emberi\u2019 stratejisi art\u0131k bir enkazdan ibaret; askeri-end\u00fcstriyel kompleksinin b\u00fcy\u00fck bir k\u0131sm\u0131 ise fel\u00e7 olmu\u015f veya imha edilmi\u015f durumda. Buna ra\u011fmen Washington\u2019un kafa kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve \u00e7eli\u015fkilerle dolu hamleleri, tatmin edici olmaktan \u00e7ok uzak bir sonu\u00e7 do\u011furdu. ABD\u2019nin hedefleri belirsizdi; sald\u0131r\u0131 \u00f6ncesi haz\u0131rl\u0131klar, planlama ve siyasi destek toplama \u00e7abalar\u0131n\u0131n tamam\u0131 yetersiz kald\u0131. Askeri eylemlerin kendisi tamamlanmam\u0131\u015f olarak kal\u0131rken, \u0130ran i\u00e7indeki geni\u015f muhalefeti harekete ge\u00e7irmedeki ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131k, belirgin bir siyasi ve askeri \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011fe sahip olmalar\u0131na ra\u011fmen ABD ve \u0130srail\u2019i kesin bir zafer kazanmaktan mahrum b\u0131rakt\u0131. Tahran\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 sava\u015f bu derece k\u00f6t\u00fc y\u00f6netilmi\u015f olsa da rejim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi ihtimali dahil olmak \u00fczere ba\u015far\u0131ya ula\u015fmak h\u00e2l\u00e2 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<\/p>\n
\u0130ranl\u0131 K\u00fcrtlerin, rejime kar\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7 muhalefeti mobilize etmeyi ama\u00e7layan her t\u00fcrl\u00fc \u00e7abaya dahil edilmesi, bu yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 savunanlar\u0131n g\u00f6z\u00fcnde kritik bir unsur olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Nitekim K\u00fcrtler, \u0130ran n\u00fcfusunun y\u00fczde 8 ila 10\u2019unu olu\u015fturuyor ve a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak \u00fclkenin kuzeybat\u0131s\u0131nda yo\u011funla\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumdalar.<\/p>\n
\u0130srail\u2019in, di\u011fer muhalif unsurlara da\u011f\u0131t\u0131lacak silahlar da dahil olmak \u00fczere K\u00fcrtlerin bu do\u011frultuda hareket etmesine yard\u0131m etmeyi ve onlara silah sa\u011flamay\u0131 planlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bildirilmi\u015fti. Ancak aktar\u0131lanlara g\u00f6re Erdo\u011fan, Trump\u2019\u0131 arayarak operasyonu durdurmas\u0131 konusunda ikna etti ve bu plan\u0131 bo\u015fa \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131.<\/p>\n
B\u00f6ylece K\u00fcrt kart\u0131 devreye sokulmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi Washington veya Tel Aviv i\u00e7 muhalefeti harekete ge\u00e7irecek alternatif bir program da ba\u015flatmad\u0131. \u00d6nlenmesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olan bu ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131klara ra\u011fmen, ABD ve \u0130srail hava sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131, hen\u00fcz dengesini kazanamam\u0131\u015f olan rejimde derin \u00e7atlaklar yaratt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu ba\u011flamda Pe\u015fmerge g\u00fc\u00e7lerine sa\u011flanan yard\u0131m\u0131n kesilmesi, ABD\u2019nin b\u00f6lge genelinde K\u00fcrtlerle olan ba\u011flar\u0131n\u0131 koparma s\u00fcrecinde oldu\u011funun bir g\u00f6stergesi olarak de\u011ferlendirilecektir. Erdo\u011fan gibi politikalar izleyen di\u011fer liderler de konuyu ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde g\u00f6recektir; zira zor zamanlarda m\u00fcttefikleri terk etmek asla ak\u0131lc\u0131 bir karar de\u011fildir.<\/p>\n
Gerek \u0130ran i\u00e7inde gerekse d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda K\u00fcrt askeri kapasitesinin zay\u0131flat\u0131lmas\u0131, do\u011frudan \u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu\u2019nun (DMO) ve rejim i\u00e7indeki \u015fahin kanad\u0131n \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131na hizmet edecektir. Bu kesim, ABD\u2019nin iradesindeki gerilemenin Washington i\u00e7indeki izolasyonist seslerin n\u00fcfuzuyla birle\u015fti\u011finde, ABD\u2019nin kendileriyle y\u00fczle\u015fme yetene\u011fini azaltt\u0131\u011f\u0131na inan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu durum, \u015fahinlerin iktidara tutunma ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 ile Ortado\u011fu\u2019nun daha geni\u015f alanlar\u0131nda hakimiyet kurma, ayr\u0131ca \u0130slam d\u00fcnyas\u0131ndaki varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirme \u015feklindeki uzun vadeli hedeflerine ula\u015fma kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131racakt\u0131r. K\u0131sa vadede bu geli\u015fme, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n IKBY\u2019deki hedeflere y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131na da yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n
Irak i\u00e7inde ise Pe\u015fmerge\u2019nin zay\u0131flamas\u0131 Kud\u00fcs G\u00fcc\u00fc i\u00e7in Tahran\u2019\u0131n t\u00fcm ter\u00f6r kollar\u0131 aras\u0131nda en az zarar g\u00f6ren grubu olan Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi g\u00fc\u00e7lerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmeye devam etme y\u00f6n\u00fcnde bir te\u015fvik olu\u015fturacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi, \u00f6zellikle kalan ABD askeri personelinin 30 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e kadar \u00fclkeden ayr\u0131lmaya haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu d\u00f6nemde, \u00fclkelerinin egemenli\u011fini ve ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 korumaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan Irak toplumunun t\u00fcm farkl\u0131 unsurlar\u0131 i\u00e7in ger\u00e7ek bir tehdit olu\u015fturuyor. Kongre\u2019deki baz\u0131 Cumhuriyet\u00e7ilerin ayn\u0131 s\u00fcre zarf\u0131nda \u0130ran yanl\u0131s\u0131 milislerin silahs\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131lar\u0131na ra\u011fmen, bu hedefe ula\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 olduk\u00e7a uzak bir ihtimal olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Tahran bir yandan \u0130ran i\u00e7indeki kapasitesini yeniden in\u015fa etmeyi, di\u011fer yandan da Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi\u2019yi Hizbullah\u2019\u0131n daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ve etkili versiyonuna d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrerek peki\u015ftirmeyi ba\u015far\u0131rsa, \u2018ate\u015f \u00e7emberi\u2019 yap\u0131lanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ok daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u015fekilde yeniden kurma yolunda b\u00fcy\u00fck bir mesafe kat etmi\u015f olacak.<\/p>\n
Olas\u0131 yans\u0131malar yaln\u0131zca \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fcfuzuyla da s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 de\u011fil; K\u00fcrt g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin zay\u0131flat\u0131lmas\u0131, DEA\u015e\u2019\u0131n Irak ve Suriye\u2019de saflar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden toparlamas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 olacak ko\u015fullar\u0131 da haz\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu perspektiften bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011funu K\u00fcrtlerin olu\u015fturdu\u011fu Suriye Demokratik G\u00fc\u00e7leri\u2019nin (SDG) yeni Suriye ordusuna entegre edilmesi ilave bir endi\u015fe kayna\u011f\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki s\u00fcre\u00e7te K\u00fcrt \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n\u0131n yeterince korunup korunmayaca\u011f\u0131 ve K\u00fcrt lider Mazlum Abdi\u2019nin Suriye Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Ahmed e\u015f-\u015eara\u2019n\u0131n dan\u0131\u015fman\u0131 s\u0131fat\u0131yla ger\u00e7ekten etkili bir rol oynay\u0131p oynamayaca\u011f\u0131 belirsizli\u011fini koruyor.<\/p>\n
Sonu\u00e7 olarak, K\u00fcrtlerin konumunu zay\u0131flatan ABD ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n uzun vadeli vahim sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesi onlarca y\u0131ld\u0131r \u00e7alkant\u0131l\u0131 bir b\u00f6lgede istikrar vahas\u0131 olmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr; bu da ABD\u2019nin b\u00f6lgeye sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 askeri deste\u011fin vazge\u00e7ilmek yerine, korunmas\u0131 gereken stratejik bir tercih oldu\u011funu g\u00f6stermektedir.<\/p>\n
\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABD Eski Ulusal G\u00fcvenlik Dan\u0131\u015fman\u0131 John Bolton,\u00a0 Pe\u015fmerge g\u00fc\u00e7lerine verilen deste\u011fin kesilmesinin sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 hakk\u0131nda bir yaz\u0131 kaleme ald\u0131. Bolton Pe\u015fmergeye yard\u0131mlar\u0131n kesilmesini ele\u015ftirdi. Bolton’un makalesi ise \u015f\u00f6yle: ABD\u2019nin tarihsel m\u00fcttefiki olan K\u00fcrt Pe\u015fmerge g\u00fc\u00e7leri; Trump\u2019\u0131n \u2018bitmeyen sava\u015flar\u0131 sona erdirme\u2019 vaadini yerine getirme k\u0131l\u0131f\u0131 alt\u0131nda, Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki askeri varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 azaltmay\u0131 hedefleyen izolasyon yanl\u0131s\u0131 Amerikal\u0131 yetkililerin y\u00fcr\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fc politikan\u0131n […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1039336,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[26],"tags":[31],"class_list":["post-1039335","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-forum","tag-onemli"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":8}},"seo_head":"\n